How November by-elections will shape 2027 race for Ruto, Opposition

In just about two weeks, 27 by-elections will be held in various parts of the country and both the Kenya Kwanza coalition and opposition parties are preparing for a grueling battle to determine their political might.

The Mbeere North and Malava by-elections have seemingly turned out to be a high-stakes game and a litmus test for the shifting political allegiances.

In Mbeere North, for instance, the campaigns have intensified amid accusations that the ruling party, United Democratic Alliance, is using state machinery in favor of its candidate, Leonard Muriuki.

The united opposition has resolved to support one candidate running on Democratic Party (DP) ticket, Newton Kariuki and so is the case for other areas with by-elections.

The stakes are high, and reports indicate that millions of shillings are being spent daily on campaign trail while others are having a rough time because they can almost not match up.

A section of senior Government officials has also been seen spending a lot of time campaigning for candidates on the Kenya Kwanza side, week after week, with nothing being left to chance.

But according to Political Analyst, Prof Macharia Munene, nothing strange is happening about having state machinery deployed to intensify campaigns, it has been witnessed ever since.

 He explains that the State always tries to ensure it does not fall while the challengers do their best to make the state look bad, a normal occurrence during campaigns.

“There's nothing that is very strange. But sometimes the by-elections have their own meaning other than the official. Officially, it is just some candidates are competing to see who gets the job that's available,” he told The Standard.

“Some of them spend a lot of money, and when they lose, some almost go crazy because they have spent a lot but the others, even if they lose, it's a kind of pocket money because they are so rich, there is a big difference there,” he adds.

He explains that the bigger symbolism of the by-election is the increasing formation of political following and right now, Ruto as President seems to be having problems nationally so it is in his interest that candidates in his party to appear to do well.

“Even if they do not capture everything, they should not lose everything. Now the other side wants to do as well as possible, capture as many seats and then show their strength in that regard. So there is that competition, in preparation for 2027,” he explained.

Munene said the impact is going to be huge for the losers and that is why they both camps are going the extra mile to gain victory, with the President having more at stake than the opposition.

Political analyst Dismas Mokua says the by-elections can be used to inform and influence the 2027 general election, citing when former President Uhuru Kenyatta used that to pronounce his arrival in the national political space and make The National Alliance (TNA) the party of choice in his strongholds.

“⁠The party whose candidates win during the by-elections will become an attractive proposition. 2027 candidates will beat a path to secure tickets from such a party. A party whose candidates does not win may witness a dash to the exit and that is why political parties are going the extra mile to win during the by-elections,” he said.

He says that by-election results may form rich content for propaganda, misinformation and disinformation.

⁠At the same time, he says Kenyan voters may have immunised themselves from the impact of State machinery during campaigns, as demonstrated during the 2027 general election and it is only useful under the radar to support the candidate logistics.

“Overt use of state machinery can potentially have unintended consequences. Most voters will want to exercise agency without fear nor intimidation. Obvious and brazen nudges using State machinery can compromise electoral victory,” he explained.

According to Mokua, voting patterns will inter alia be influenced by candidates’ capacity and competence, likability and unique selling proposition, sponsoring party and electoral mood.

It is also the case that campaign logistics and capacity to turn out the vote are key success factors.

“The 2027 permutations and combinations will also influence voting patterns. The voting patterns will be aligned to parties that may ultimately produce presidential candidates,” he says.