How political ground is shifting under Ruto's feet

Three years into his tenure, the political ground has shifted from President William Ruto’s feet.

Regional blocks such as Mt Kenya and Western, which the President rode onto power and where the electorate voted him in, almost to a man, in the 2022 general elections, have either disintegrated or are rocked by divisions, thanks to a myriad of political developments ahead of the 2027 general elections.

But Dr Ruto, reeling from the spectre of losing a crucial support base in the Mt Kenya region where he garnered 3.8 million of his total 7.1 million votes, has  changed strategy and courted new blocks such as the North Eastern, Ukambani and Luo Nyanza regions, which he now relies on to trumple a united opposition that is intent on relegating him to a one-term presidency.

The President’s greatest undoing in the vote-rich Mt Kenya region came in the form of an ouster Motion against his then deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.

A bitter fallout from the duo saw Ruto hand over the political rope that was used by MPs in the unprecedented impeachment of a sitting Deputy President.

Members of Parliament at the National Assembly and the Senate overwhelmingly voted to impeach Gachagua.

But with this move came a revolt from the Mt Kenya region constituents against the Kenya Kwanza administration which they accused of a use- and- dump strategy.

Gachagua, whose popularity quickly rose as a result, continues to lead the revolt.

And in a bid to counter the political fallout, Ruto appointed and Kithure Kindiki, who hails from the Mt Kenya East region, to replace Gachagua.

Prof Kindiki, who has since taken up the role of his predecessor fervently, is now in charge of pacifying the region and leading it back to Ruto’s fold.

The professor of law has also moved to neuter Gachagua’s influence in the region.

As he quietly evolves into the Kenya Kwanza’s explainer-in-chief of government projects, Kindiki has turned his Irunduni home into a political fortress where he holds political meetings and empowerment programmes, in a deliberate attempt to rival Gachagua’s Wamunyoro home as a centre of power ahead of the 2027 elections.

With support from the Mountain waning, Ruto’s political overtures have now extended to the North Eastern, Ukambani, Luo Nyanza and coast regions where the Kenya Kwanza administration is keen on cementing its political foothold as the general polls beckon.

The North Eastern frontier comprises Marsabit, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa and parts of upper Eastern where his administration continues to dish out goodies in a bid to woo the voters. Of significance is the Isiolo-Mandera road, a 760-kilometre infrastructure wading through Isiolo and Mandera counties.  

Once completed, it is expected to link Kenya to Ethiopia and Somalia and simultaneously increase trade and improve security in the region.

But the most telling of the administration’s intent to clinch the region’s support is the move to scrap a 60-year-old vetting requirement for people in North Eastern Kenya.

The Ruto administration did what its predecessors had frowned upon by lifting the requirement of screening applicants from the region before issuance of ID cards and passports.

Njoki Wamai, an Assistant Professor in Politics and International Relations at the United States International University (USIU), notes that Ruto’s ‘divide and rule strategy’ is part of his political self-preservation.

“Ruto is a leader who engages in realpolitik. He is a politician who does what he needs to do for political survival. Knowing that the ground has shifted, the Mt Kenya region gone, and with the emergence of a younger voting block, he has resorted to the historically marginalized regions such as North Eastern and Nyanza, which has been in the political cold for years, to ensure that he survives until the next elections,” Wamai opined.

Enter the Luo-Nyanza region and the President’s resolve to bring it into his fold is echoed by his incessant forays and recent appointment of Cabinet Secretaries Opiyo Wandayi (Energy), John Mbadi (Treasury) and Hassan Joho (Blue Economy and mining) into the so- called broad-based government.

By working with the MPs from ODM, which holds a lot of sway in the region, Ruto seeks to increase his chances. 

In May, the Head of State also embarked on a four-day tour of Nyanza in his bid to pacify the region and entrench his support in ODM leader Raila Odinga’s backyard.

While there, the President launched and inspected development projects as he graced the Madaraka Day celebrations in Homa Bay. His goodies for the region centred around initiatives in housing, infrastructure, and the blue economy for the region.

History and governance professor Macharia Munene, however, avers that whereas Ruto’s overtures may earn him support, they will do little to change his political fortunes in regions such as Mt Kenya.

“The President’s actions show that he is desperate for legitimation. His fervent tours across the country are campaigns to try and convince some parts to support him ahead of 2027, and he just might achieve that. However, expecting that there will be a massive shift in how he is perceived countrywide is something else,” said Macharia.

Gitile Naituli, a professor of leadership and management, observes that the only way for Ruto to change his fortunes in the lead up to the 2027 polls is through the completion of stalled projects, from the former President Uhuru Kenyatta era and implementing his own.

“People do not dislike him (Ruto) as an individual, they dislike his failure…” said the professor.