Why opposition cannot afford to write off Raila

At the burial of pioneer female politician Phoebe Asiyo last week, former Prime Minister Raila Odinga gave President William Ruto the strongest indication that he would back the latter’s re-election in 2027.

Raila mocked campaigns to make Ruto a one-term leader, expressing confidence that he and the President would go beyond the next election.

He was speaking in his Nyanza backyard, where he is assured of unconditional support. And this influence can almost certainly be transferred to a candidate of his choice, as was the case when he backed Mwai Kibaki in 2002.

But does the grand old man of Kenya’s politics still hold as much sway as he has over the years?

The new opposition, led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, believes Raila is losing relevance, a position shared by his young critics.

“Raila is totally irrelevant in the political discourse,” Gachagua told a gathering in the US, last month.

His view is shared by Barrack Muluka, a lecturer and political analyst, who argues that the former premier’s best days are behind him.

“Raila is an octogenarian that is sinking into dotage and whose wide political relevance is more to be remembered than to be anticipated,” Dr Muluka says.

Whether or not Raila has lost relevance is debatable.

In Raila’s absence, Kenya’s youth have shown that they can mobilise for protests on a scale only achievable by the opposition veteran. That was on display on June 25, 2024, when thousands poured into the streets across the country in demonstrations that saw Parliament breached.

Last June, thousands marked the June 25 anniversary demonstrations, which were mostly concentrated in Nairobi. But the youth have struggled to mobilise beyond protests, and possibly into an outfit that could challenge the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance in 2027. They have kept their movement alive on social media.

“If the youth will vote differently, not along ethnic lines, they can decide who will become president,” said Ian Horsefield, a lawyer and political analyst. “They have the numbers.”

In the 2022 election, the ODM leader lost marginally to Ruto, securing 6.9 million votes against the president’s 7.1 million.

With Raila now in Ruto’s corner, there is a possibility that he could transfer some of his numbers to the President. Raila’s numbers are enticing to any presidential hopeful. However, there is the reality that he might not retain his influence.

“While his influence has peeled off, Raila still retains a bloc that should worry opponents,” says Herman Manyora, a university lecturer and political commentator.

The bloc includes the former Nyanza Province, which gave Raila 1.8 million votes in 2022. Then there is the former Coast Province, where Raila reaped nearly a million votes. There is Western, too, which gave the former premier about a million votes.

But things are changing fast. There is growing resistance in Western, where Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya is seeking to chart a new political course for the region. A crop of young politicians from the region is also angling to assert their influence.

The resistance bug has also stung Kisii and Nyamira counties, party because of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i possible presidential run. In 2022, Raila bagged nearly 400,000 votes from the region that produced slightly over 600,000 votes.

Still, Manyora believes it would be a mistake for opposition politicians to underestimate Raila’s influence.

“You cannot wish him away. By writing him off, the opposition shows that Raila is not in their strategy when they should be fighting to weaken him,” said Manyora.

Horsefield concurs, pointing out that Raila is still shaping the political discourse.

“As long as he is alive, he will still hold sway, which he has built in the more than three decades in politics. If he were to retire today, people would still go to him to kiss the ring,” says Horsefield.